Paytm Shares Surge 10% as Bernstein Raises Target Price to ₹2,200

TheGeoAffairs : Shares of One97 Communications, the parent entity operating the Paytm brand, experienced a massive rally on Monday, surging 10 percent to hit ₹1,584.95 per share after global brokerage firm Bernstein significantly upgraded its target price to ₹2,200. This revised target marks a major milestone for the Noida-based fintech giant, representing the first time since its initial public offering in November 2021 that a prominent research firm has set a price target above its original IPO issue price of ₹2,150. Driven by intense buying interest, the stock touched a new 52-week high of ₹1,594.80 during intraday trading on the exchanges.

The dramatic bullish upgrade from Bernstein stems primarily from expectations surrounding the potential reintroduction of a Merchant Discount Rate on Unified Payments Interface transactions. In its latest research note, the brokerage incorporated UPI MDR into its base-case scenario starting from FY28 onward, projecting that charging merchants on high-volume digital payments could lift Paytm's net payments margins by three to four basis points. This structural shift in monetization is estimated to expand the company's FY30 earnings per share by roughly 30 percent compared to previous projections, potentially adding around ₹22 billion in incremental EBITDA by FY30.

Bernstein’s optimistic forecast arrives alongside key regulatory developments, notably the recent passage of the Taxation and Other Laws Amendment Bill, 2026, in the Lok Sabha. The legislation amends the Payment and Settlement Systems Act of 2007, transferring authority to the government to determine which digital payment channels remain free and which may attract transaction fees. By replacing the previous framework tied to the Income Tax Act, the amendment establishes a clear legal pathway for policymakers to implement MDR charges on commercial UPI payments, providing a clear revenue catalyst for leading payment aggregators like Paytm as digital transaction volumes continue to hit record highs across India.

Disclaimer: The information provided above is for news and analytical purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice.